Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Click on the to see the other two. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Will it be a close race or, um, not? Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. We rated every race in play in 2022. The chart below shows historical partisan breakdown information for the chamber. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Alabama. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. You can also view these ratings as a table. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. See the rest of our predictions. Less clear is what the race will do to his . One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. House.[5]. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. All 435 seats were up for election. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. By Leke Baiyewu. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. All rights reserved. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. 51 +1. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Metadata. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. RCP Gov Map Race . Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Benjamin Kalu. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. November 7: Toss-up races projected. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . . Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. 213 -10. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. Find out how all this works in our. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. The figures shown are total numbers. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Arizona. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Its a busy time for collecting polls. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. [16], In 2022, 31 U.S. House races did not have major party opposition. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). MONTREAL, Que. November 7:Toss-up races projected. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. All Rights Reserved. 50. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Visit. Current House. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Arkansas. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 . This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r