The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. [54]Armenian officials have not yet publicly commented on the potential to extradite Kamensky to Russia. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin. [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. We wanted to talk more now about the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. None of this should be overstated. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. So they reported lies to him instead. But any economists can tell you a dollar spent in China or Russia can buy more than a dollar in, say, Switzerland or the United States, meaning Russian military systems cost much less than Western ones, and salaries paid even to contract soldiers are much lower than in the US or Europe. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. Four days of fighting might seem an eternity when viewed through the prism of round-the-clock cable news, but, in retrospect, a month from now, it will seem like the blink of an eye. [56]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr [57]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [58]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [59]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [60]https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production [61]https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910, [63]https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. An examination of the current state of the Russian ground forces supports such an analysis. Moreover, Russia has also made some important progress in swarming technology. Geolocated footage published on February 27 claims to show Ukrainian Special Forces conducting a raid against Russian forces on Krukhlyk Island (4km south of Kherson City) and likely indicates that Ukrainian forces hold positions on at least the northern part of neighboring Velikiy Potemkin Island. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on The Patriot air defence is outdated. It added: "Due to the lack of high-precision weapons, Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. [76]The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian occupation officials in Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast are forcing students to write letters to Russian military personnel and attend daily hour-long informational sessions that present the Russian framing of the war in Ukraine.[77]. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. In 1999, Putin dispatched Russia's military to occupy Chechnya again. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. Most of all, Russia has exposed to its European neighbors and American rivals gaps in its military strategy that can be exploited in future battles. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. What we consider before using anonymous sources. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. When adjusting for purchasing power, this may multiply effective defense spending by at least a factor of three. [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. They created this fog of war and used it all these sneaky ways. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. All contents 2023 The Slate Group LLC. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. MCFATE: Sure. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Kreminna itself, Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna), Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). [64]Prigozhin praised the soldiers and stated that he has already asked Russian military authorities to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. After their initial invasion last year failed to take Kyiv, Russian forces pulled back, mining roads and fields. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after The new Russian playbook keeps tanks and infantry outside direct-fire range until the big guns and rockets have done most of the killing. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. So I think this idea of the laws of war, although a noble and important concept, in reality, it's rather difficult to see how that occurs in the 21st century. Absolutely hilarious to watch. But one thing stands out to some analysts. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. Groups are working to de-mine those areas to make them safe for civilians. DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE - FEBRUARY 14: Ukrainian soldiers load ammunition to tanks on the frontline near the towns of Vuhledar and Marinka as Russian-Ukrainian war continues in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 14, 2023. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Kherson Oblast occupation administration head Vladimir Saldo called on teachers from Russia to teach in Kherson Oblast, specifically Russian history, and stated that his administration intends to shape the educational curriculum with lessons on patriotism and military affairs under the guidance of the Russian Military Historical Society. What are you thinking of? [47]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 [48]https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m [49]https://suspilnedot media/399572-zsu-vlucili-po-rosianah-u-timcasovo-okupovanomu-misti-pologi-na-zaporizzi/, [50]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraines army and civilian defense forces. Subscribe to Task & Purpose Today. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. Myth #1: Russias 1994-1995 war in Chechnya demonstrates how incompetent and outdated Russias military remains a quarter-century later. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images After four days of fighting, the That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. Its why so many tanks and other vehicles have been spotted stuck on the side of a road. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z In reality, though there were real doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military prior to and during World War II, Russian military leaders were constrained by political purges, educational deficits, and linguistic barriers in the Soviet conscript soldiers. [33]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http [35]https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 [36]https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20. Pretty outdated. As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. Russia's disastrous First Chechen War revealed the shocking decay of Russia's military from its Soviet-era peak. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. MARTIN: Who are these people? The question of the most modern army in the world is quite unusual. As they say, everything is known in comparison. For example, all NATO countries After days of miscalculation about Ukraines resolve to fight, Russian forces are turning toward an old pattern of opening fire on cities and mounting sieges. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace claimed, citing reports, that a Russian brigade was effectively annihilated and 1,000 fighters killed between Feb. 14-15. He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot. Therefore, large troop-transport planes tried to land, even though the airport hadnt been completely secured and Ukrainian air defense systems hadnt been destroyed. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. In one notorious incident early in the war, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery became stalled 19 miles (30 km) The Russian army has always been bad at setting up and sustaining supply lines. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a Of course, it is hard to have 100% of recent equipment and machinery when you have a sizeable army. #Ukraine: A Russian T-72B3 tank and BMP-2 IFV were destroyed by the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade using an AT mine and ATGM respectively in Mykilske near Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. Also, it was a lot worse 10 years ago. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. Rather, we need to move past stereotypes even those with some historical basis that mischaracterize what Russia's military can and can't do today. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming They don't address non-state actors. As a result, Ukrainian drones have been picking off Russian convoys with impunity. The Russian soldiers have been plagued by poor morale as well as fuel and food shortages. And certainly, you know, when conventional war in Ukraine fails, which I think it will, Putin will move to an unconventional war phase where he's going to flatten cities like he did in Grozny, too, and Aleppo in Syria. Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. Some 154 helicopters, 19 aircraft, and 17 MLRSs have also reportedly been lost. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. According to U.S. officials, the Russian military has committed 80 percent of its active-duty army, airborne, and marine units and their equipment to Ukraine, and it has already withdrawn additional equipment from long-term storage. Have they proved reliable in the past? Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. Ukraines military, which is dwarfed by the Russian force in most ways, has somehow managed to stymie its opponent. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. Russia opened its invasion with a page from the superpower playbook as written by the United States and its allies in the 1991 Gulf War. 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