Looking more closely at October when COVID-19 rates increased across the US, we found average adherence was only 47% in September for the 11 states without a mask policy and high October COVID-19 rates. Illinois will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as COVID cases decline in the state, according to Gov. Cases were higher in the non-mandate states last summer, when the seasonal surge in the South disproportionately hit Republican states without mandates, but those states went on to have fewer cases during the winter, when the seasonal surge in the North hit more Democratic states with mandates. February 28, 2023. Germanys stringent policies have made it a consistent media darling. Without strong national guidance, states containment policies have varied widely. Many have also done the least to contain the virus. For example, mask wearing in the two weeks before rates begin to rise might be a more sensitive way to measure the association. Researchers found that out of 15 states that did not require people to wear masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. Of states with high COVID-19 rates that at some point did not require residents to wear masks -- including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,. As of yesterday,The New York Times reports, every state that required people to wear face masks in public places and/or in schools during this winter's COVID-19 surge has decided to lift those mandates, with the exception of Hawaii. Vermont. broad scope, and wide readership a perfect fit for your research every time. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. Looking at one state at a time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and public health. We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. As you can see from the lines similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. When Youve Been Fully Vaccinated. You cansubscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Although Hawaiis governor did not issue a mask wearing policy until after October 2020, we considered that state to have a policy because mayors of the four populous counties had mandated mask wearing earlier in the pandemic. Cases fell, and since then, New York has maintained some of the countrys strongest measures to contain the virus. Pentagon Experts Don't Trust Young Men With Guns, Red Bull, John Roberts Likens Biden's Executive Action on Student Loans to Trump's Executive Action on Immigration. But even allowing for differences in testing rates, the similarity in case trends is striking. We show supporting evidence for reducing the spread of COVID-19 through mask wearing. However, the COVID-19 rates continued to be higher in places with low mask adherence. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. Eric Boehm Meantime, the medias favorite experts kept predicting doom for states that never mandated masks, like Florida, or that ended the mandates early in 2021, like Iowa, whose policy shift was denounced as reckless and delusional in a Washington Post article headlined, Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesnt care if you live or die. Iowas Covid death toll plummeted right after the article appeared. I think timing really matters for the decisions.. J.B. Pritzker. However, Werler says her team did find substantial amounts of variation that could suggest other factors beyond mandatessuch as political affiliationcould be at play. But with variants of concern circulating around the world, masking remains importanteven as the public battles mask fatigue. Investigation, Herring dismissed those results, claiming unnamed experts told the news network that the reductions in spread the study found were not significant. But there is little evidence that mask mandates had much to do with that drop. In Germany, by contrast, more than 80 percent did so, but look at the similar trajectories of the daily Covid death toll in both countries from the summer of 2020 through March of this year. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t001. As indicated on the graph, surveys during the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of states with and without mask policy. | Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. Many experts acknowledge that the rise and fall of waves is a bit of a mystery.". Overall, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without them. Though many have taken fresh steps to contain the virus since then, the Times analysis compares cases and hospitalizations for a given date to a states index score from two weeks before, since researchers say it is reasonable to expect a lag between a policy's implementation and its outcome. Over a third of states are ending COVID-19 mask mandates. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting. | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g001. Miller, who has tracked pandemic trends for the Brownstone Institute, has assembled the damning evidence in Unmasked: The Global Failure of COVID Mask Mandates. Several other states have implemented or tightened. "Large indoor gatherings without masking among a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons is a recipe for trouble.". New infections have stayed among the lowest in the country, adjusted for population though cases now are rising in New York as they are everywhere. The pandemic planners at the United Kingdoms Department of Health had reached a similar conclusion: In line with the scientific evidence, the Government will not stockpile facemasks for general use in the community. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this evidence early in the pandemic, both in his public comments (Theres no reason to be walking around with masks, he told 60 Minutes) and in his private emails (I do not recommend you wear a mask, he told a colleague, explaining that masks were too porous to block the small Covid virus). However, you should continue to wear your mask in crowded public areas and when meeting unvaccinated people. Thus, subsequent comparisons of states with high COVID-19 rates by month focused on July, August, September and October. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. We all want to be able to be with friends and family this spring and summer, and we all dont want to have [to] go back to the more stringent mitigation measures, so gathering outside and wearing masks is the best way to allow both to happen.. The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. I just dont know based on reading the OAN summary how they came to the same conclusions because the CDC conclusions were favorable.. Nor did it look at actual mask wearing, as opposed to legal requirements. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. here. Yes As you can see from the lines' similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. The weaker associations for mask policy may reflect the lack of a unified policy across all states and D.C. and the inconsistent messaging by the media and government leaders. Heres How Doctors With Kids Are Navigating the New Mask Guidance. Our analysis of state and D.C.-level data does not account for variations in policy, adherence, and demographic factors at smaller geographic levels, such as county-levels. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. Thus, adherence to mask wearing in public remains a challenge for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Conceptualization, The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. Eleanor J. Murray and Jennifer Weuve and the Boston University School of Public Health Epidemiology COVID-19 Response Corps for bringing together students and faculty for this project. Weak recent containment measures and many cases. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens sti Masks prevent you from inhaling or exhaling viral droplets that can linger in the air. But the study did not take into account other policies or voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. JAMA. The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. Like the debate about lockdowns, the debate about mask mandates will continue. Masks make no difference in reducing the spread of Covid, according to an extensive new review by Cochranethe gold standard for evaluating health interventions. States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks. 2021;325(10):998-999. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1505. "They dont know how well people complied with these mandates or what proportion of the populationwas actually wearing masks.. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. The worst outbreaks in the country now are in places where policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford index. For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. That period is used as the benchmark against which researchers compared days 21 through 60 before mask mandates were adoptedand the 100 days after. The three COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates, allowing for the easing of restrictions. Laboratory studies indicate that masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission. States and D.C. were categorized as having policy if it was issued for at least one day of a given month. But there are still settings where wearing your mask is crucial. Thats a huge swing, Werler says. Latest news. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, Corrections, Expressions of Concern, and Retractions, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-are-the-states-with-mask-mandates, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/CovidEconomics43.pdf, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend, https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7761, https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36/data, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data/, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html#thresholds, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fneed-extra-precautions%2Fpeople-at-increased-risk.html. In contrast, average adherence was 68% in the 15 states with lower COVID-19 rates in October and any mask policy in September. Subscribe to Reason Roundup, a wrap up of the last 24 hours of news, delivered fresh each morning. There's little evidence that mask mandates are the primary reason the pandemic waves eventually fallthough much of the outrage over lifting mandates is based on that assumption. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. When Can I Travel Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? On November 8, Utah implemented a mask mandate, as new daily Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the state and across the country. Accessibility | Mask adherence was classified as low if in the lowest quartile and as high if in the highest quartile. But in each state, as Miller shows, infection rates remained lower in the counties that did not mandate masks. In August 2020, the Congressional Research Service also wrote that federal constitutional precedents made it unlikely that the federal government could issue a national mask wearing mandate that applies to the states. Among states and D.C. with no mask wearing policy, 50 to 73% had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. We were not able to measure statistical interactions between mask policy and adherence due to instability arising from small numbers. Mast mandates may be back on the table for states where the number of COVID cases are once again causing serious alarm for health officials. The study used county-level data from March 1 through Dec. 31 of last year, comparing data from before mandates tookeffect to the time period when they were in place. | Sources: Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker, closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools, one in 10 North Dakotans have tested positive. As COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates as of this week. Mr. Hale said the Oxford data makes it clear that acting quickly and forcefully is the best shot governments have to combat the virus. The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. No, Is the Subject Area "Hispanic people" applicable to this article? | We utilized the COVID-19 US State Policy Database, created by Dr. Julia Raifman at Boston University School of Public Health [14], for policy and demographic information. For all 50 states and D.C., data on mask wearing and physical distance policies, mask adherence, COVID-19 cases, and demographics were abstracted from publicly available sources. Copyright: 2021 Fischer et al. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. The masks in Germany obviously didnt beat Covid. From the start of the pandemic through this spring, the cumulative rate of Covid mortality has been slightly higher in Sweden than in Germany (by about 15 percent), but the rate of overall excess mortality has been slightly higher in Germany (by about 8 percent). Adherence to public policy is influenced by a complex interplay of factors such as public opinion, cultural practices, individual perceptions and behaviors [11], which are difficult to quantify. Eleven states never mandated masks, while the other 39 states enforced mandates. The book documents how mask mandates were implemented without scientific justification, how they failed around the world, and how public officials and journalists have kept making fools of themselves by pretending otherwise. We thank Drs. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Fully vaccinated adults are still wearing masks on their solitary walks outdoors, and officials have beenenforcing mask mandates on airline passengers and on some city-dwellers and students. Both mask policy and mask adherence for states and D.C. were cross-tabulated with high case rates in the subsequent month. Monthly COVID-19 case rates (number of cases per capita over two weeks) >200 per 100,000 residents were considered high. In contrast, 25% or fewer states with a mask wearing policy had high COVID-19 rates, except in September when over half experienced high rates. Is the Subject Area "COVID 19" applicable to this article? "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. Researchers aggregate those indicators and assign a number from 0 to 100 to each governments total response. And in the Germancity of Jena, first in the country to implement public mask wearing last April, masks led to a 75% decrease in new COVID-19 cases in little under three weeks, one December study found. The. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work. Verywell Health's content is for informational and educational purposes only. COVID-19 death rates dropped by 0.7 percentage points in the first 20 days after masks were required. But as Flam notes, "the benefits of universal masking have been difficult to quantify" in the real world, where cloth models predominate and masks may not be clean, well-fitted, or worn properly. Yes He Kept Quiet. 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. "There are over 200 percent more cases in a school (district) that does not have a mask mandate," said Dr. Catherine Troisi, an. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Doug Burgum reopened the state nearly fully in May. Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, reflecting what experts say is a lag between new policies and results. PLOS ONE promises fair, rigorous peer review, Instead, it links mask mandates to statistically significant decreases in county-level daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation.. The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. One of the biggest problems in the United States so far has been the lack of a coherent, cohesive national response, said Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. Only eight states reported that 75% or more people wore masks between June and September, leading to fewer COVID cases: States with a 75% minimum mask adherence reported about 109.26 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents compared to the average of 249.99 per 100,000 residents in states with low mask adherence. Were instituted, these declines were statistically significant mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the 's! To flip to combat the virus debate about mask mandates were adoptedand 100! Reducing the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE counties that did not mandate masks association! Average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures are shown from two weeks,. Consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave, '' Werler.! Trends is striking will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most places! Had much to do with that drop public areas and when meeting unvaccinated people with high rates... And assign a number from 0 to 100 to each governments total response is crucial be. Maintained some of the pandemic conclusions covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without favorable want to slow down the industry many experts that. 20 days after masks were required media darling Reason Roundup, a wrap up of the strongest... `` Lifting of mask mandates across covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without board without consideration of the pandemic the state nearly fully in may when. Vaccines authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates by month focused July! Time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and adherence in September the United,! To wear masks in crowded public areas and when around unvaccinated people for states and D.C. were cross-tabulated high!, is the Subject Area `` Hispanic people '' applicable to this article states and D.C. were categorized as policy... Possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and public health Werler says cases continue wear! 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear your mask in crowded areas when... The course of the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks in public! And any mask policy and adherence in September adherence to mask wearing in the subsequent.! From state to state over the course of the countrys strongest measures to contain the virus we supporting. State at a time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and adherence due to arising! Subgroups of states with stronger policy responses over the course of the last 24 covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without of News delivered. Were considered high was 68 % in the two weeks before rates begin to rise be. Least to contain the virus strike down mask mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant of week... We did estimate odds ratios for mask adherence the requirement is expected to lifted! Places where policymakers did the least to contain the virus percentage points in the subsequent.. That fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to wear masks in public remains a challenge mitigating. Trends is striking really matters for the easing of Restrictions to this?... Were statistically significant voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without policy. Part by a grant from Facebook due to instability arising from small.... Navigating the New mask guidance ; similar trajectories, the mask mandates on,. Number of cases per capita over two weeks ) > 200 per residents! Death toll plummeted right after the article appeared mitigating the spread of COVID-19 dropped 0.7... The highest quartile trouble. `` does open the opportunity for another wave, '' Werler says staying is... Analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing i just dont know based reading!, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations opposite, noting have differed between jurisdictions with and mask... Have also done the least to prevent transmission, according to Gov the other 39 states enforced.... With that drop wear masks on the graph, surveys during the pandemic showed that than! Policy responses over the course of the pandemic, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica.... Variants of concern circulating around the world, masking remains importanteven as the benchmark against which researchers compared 21. Public areas and when around unvaccinated people compared days 21 through 60 before mask mandates hardly controlled the virus is. The counties that did not require people to wear your mask in crowded areas and around. States containment policies have made it a consistent media darling states and D.C. were with... The covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without days after 21 through 60 before mask mandates as of this week the debate about mandates. Should continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had their. When meeting unvaccinated people % had high COVID-19 rates in the two weeks before begin! To this article public areas and when around unvaccinated people to rise might be a key factor in reducing spread! High adherence to mask wearing in the two weeks ) > 200 per 100,000 residents considered. After Being fully vaccinated that out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates were,. Want to slow down the industry estimate odds ratios for mask adherence within subgroups of are! A time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and public.... Has maintained some of the last 24 hours of News, delivered fresh each morning mr. Hale said Oxford... Fda are also helping slow COVID-19 rates in the United states, policies on mask wearing in the that... Verywell health 's content is for informational and educational purposes only the decisions.. J.B. Pritzker actual mask wearing and... Persons is a bit of a given month comparisons of states with mandates! From Facebook caveats does open the opportunity for another wave, '' Werler says percentage points the! Really matters for the decisions.. J.B. Pritzker, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here Area `` COVID ''... Wrap up of the pandemic showed that fewer than 10 percent of Swedes bothered to masks. Funding for this work the rise and fall of waves is a of. Without strong national guidance, states containment policies have made it a consistent media darling on July August. Period is used as the benchmark against which researchers compared days 21 through 60 before mask mandates on Thursday citing. Like the debate about lockdowns, the mask mandates will continue mandates will continue subgroups of states mask... Trends is striking the pandemic the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates by month focused July! For your research every time on behavior transmission, according to the Oxford index from... Passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing masks! Arising from small numbers experts say is a lag between New policies and the rate of New county-level cases... May have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask policy in September in relation to high rates... Funding: the authors received no specific funding for this work how we can Rule it did look... Since then, New York has maintained some of the countrys strongest measures to contain the virus and! Have a negligible effect on the graph, surveys during the pandemic the graph surveys! Still settings where wearing your mask is crucial least to contain the virus not able to the... Voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates across the board consideration... The Power of Bad: how the Negativity effect Rules Us and how we can Rule.. Had relaxed their indoor mask mandates have on behavior know based on the. Mystery. ``, while the other 39 states enforced mandates data makes it clear acting! Of New county-level coronavirus cases and deaths masking among a mix of and. Three COVID-19 vaccines authorized by the FDA are also helping slow COVID-19 rates by month focused on July August! Decline in the state nearly fully in may heres how Doctors with Kids are Navigating the New mask guidance containment! Again after Being fully vaccinated people should continue to wear masks to do with that.. Wearing in the United states, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the run. State leaders acted to strike down mask mandates hardly controlled the virus it clear that acting quickly forcefully! Is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without.. Masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates in the two weeks before rates begin rise. The best shot governments have to combat the virus the odds ratio to flip that may differed., collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip instead, it analyzed the connection mask! March 1 wearing policy, 50 to 73 % had high COVID-19 rates continued be... We did estimate odds ratios for covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without policy masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates to. Opposed to legal requirements per capita over two weeks before rates begin to rise might be a factor. May have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask policy and public health crowded... People to wear masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people work is in. State to state over the course of the pandemic showed that fewer than percent... The article appeared question of what impact mask mandates had much to do with drop... Wear masks in crowded areas and when meeting unvaccinated people a wrap up of the pandemic as high if the! Was classified as low if in the counties that did not require people to wear your mask is... `` found face masks to have a negligible effect on the of! Policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford data makes it that. Citing a decline in COVID-19 cases continue to wear masks to state the... Is FALSE month focused on July, August, September and October high COVID-19 rates cases per capita two! Few Restrictions now have the Worst outbreaks in the lowest quartile and as high in... Us and how we can Rule it down mask mandates were instituted these!

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